Iraq
$2 Trillion War
Volume 1, Issue 1
Adam Fogg

The economic cost for the USA of the Iraq war is estimated to reach $2 trillion ($2,000,000,000,000), £1.1 trillion. Having been originally estimated to cost $100 billion, the cost of the Iraq war has now escalated over time. As such, now there is an even larger case to wonder, is it worth it?

Many people opposed the war to start with, and now with this new found cost, there are bound to be even greater numbers of opponents to the war. So how were the estimates so wrong? Well, to date the actual cost of the war is around $200 billion, and so the original estimate does not appear quite so innacurate. However, this $200 billion cost only includes the military "operating costs" so far, funding the troops, their transport to and around Iraq and equiping them with weapons and ammunition. There are, however, many futher costs which need to be included and predicted for the future.

At the moment, the war is costing an estimated $5 billion per month, that's $60 billion per year. Why is this so high? It's due to a range of reasons. The main explanation is that there are still hundreds of thouands of troops in Iraq. The number of troops sent was meant to be reduced very early on, but due to strong resistance many troops have had to remain in Iraq. It is also due to the scale of the army's task, "A typical bradley fighting vehicle usually runs about 800 miles a year - that's in peacetime training - now they are sometimes being driven in the range of 4,000 miles in Iraq" mentioned secretary Rumsfeld. Furthermore, the costs of medical treatment, new ammunition and weapons all contribute towards this figure. So where does the other trillion dollars come into it?

The costs of repairing and rebuilding Iraq are expected to be significant. The reconstruction costs include many different aspects, such as security, public safety, electricity, oil, water, health care, education, telecoms, roads and buildings; basically a whole new infrastructure. While this is expected to cost the US a large amount, there is talk about the US forcing Iraq to sort itself out and pay for its own refurbishment, which will no doubt be settled at a later date. This could total $300 billion with ease.

The main cause of the rise in war costs comes from looking at the long run. A recent paper written by Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel award-winning economist, estimated the long-run costs to the US government to be £2 trillion. The study, which expanded on traditional estimates by including such costs as lifetime disability and healthcare for troops injured in the conflict, as well as the impact on the American economy, concluded that the US government is continuing to underestimate the cost of the war. The primary explanation for this high estimate is the cost associated with looking after injured soldiers. Due to great advancements in equipment and body armour, many soldiers are surviving with horrific injuries rather than losing their life. So many people that would have otherwise died are now staying alive, but require alot of care, time and resources to be looked after for the rest of their life, potentially a further 50-70 years. For instance, the latest Pentagon figures show that more than 16,000 military pesonnel have been wounded in Iraq. The economists predict the cost of lifetime care for the thousands of troops who have suffered brain injuries alone could run to $35bn. It should be noted that the writers of the paper also added "Our estimates are very conservative, and it could be that the final costs will be much higher. It should be noted they do not include the costs of conflict to either Iraq or the UK." The paper looks at all the effects of war and the subsequent consequences on consumer confidence, oil prices, and of the macro and micro economy of America. The initial estimates to the cost of the war only factored in the pure military costs. It therefore appeared affordable at the time, but new data and research shows that the war is likely to cost trillions of dollars and may never be properly resolved.

One of many soldiers still alive but in a horrible condition is Marine Sergeant 'DJ' Emery, who found himself on a hospital bed two days after the birth of his baby girl. He has "fought a tough battle. His dedicated doctors, nurses and all those across the evacuation and military medical chain worked hard to keep him alive." This demonstrates the magnitude of people involved to keep this man alive. The economic issue is the fact that this man will keep on needing hours of help and physiotherapy to hopefully give him the chance to one day return to living an independent life. He vows to be walking before his daughter is.

From a purely economic viewpoint, the war in Iraq was definitely not worth it, and when you see the personal costs of war such as those experienced by David Emery, all you can wish is that this war ends as soon as possible.




 
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